Merck KGaA MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
28.68%
increased by 4.14%
1 Week
28.86%
increased by 4.32%
1 Month
29.32%
increased by 4.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 20, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
μ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2539 | 12.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2012 | 30.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7278 | 139.83*** |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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