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V-Lab

Merck KGaA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

26.80%

decreased by 1.26%

1 Week

28.16%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

30.03%

increased by 1.97%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:42 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck KGaA S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 20, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5860
7.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1290
7.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6896
16.96***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0600
-5.53***
γ20.0719
4.73***
γ3-0.0180
-1.79*
γ40.0221
2.25**
γ5-0.0249
-3.55***

Persistence:

0.819

Half-life:

3 days