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V-Lab

Merck KGaA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

24.99%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

26.93%

increased by 1.37%

1 Month

29.53%

increased by 3.97%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck KGaA S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 20, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5871
7.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1289
7.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6902
17.01***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0596
-5.54***
γ20.0714
4.73***
γ3-0.0176
-1.76*
γ40.0214
2.20**
γ5-0.0243
-3.50***

Persistence:

0.819

Half-life:

3 days