V-Lab
Merck KGaA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
23.73%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
23.89%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
24.45%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 20, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 70% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0438 | 15.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0249 | 15.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9535 | 598.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0175 | 5.59*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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