V-Lab
Merck KGaA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
25.49%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
25.59%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
25.96%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:41 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 20, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 69% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0433 | 15.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0248 | 15.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9539 | 601.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0171 | 5.49*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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