Skip to main content
V-Lab

Merck KGaA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

25.49%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Week

25.59%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Month

25.96%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:41 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck KGaA GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 20, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 69% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0433
15.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0248
15.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9539
601.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0171
5.49***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days