V-Lab
Merck KGaA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
24.56%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
24.69%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
25.16%
increased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 20, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 70% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0436 | 15.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0248 | 15.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9537 | 600.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0174 | 5.57*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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