V-Lab
Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
128.83%
increased by 12.28%
1 Week
125.25%
increased by 8.70%
1 Month
115.34%
decreased by 1.21%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 177% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5466 | 3.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2444 | 4.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7656 | 28.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1561 | -2.20** |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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