V-Lab
Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
80.35%
decreased by 5.76%
1 Week
83.18%
decreased by 2.93%
1 Month
89.30%
increased by 3.19%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.3718 | 1.40 |
| αARCH | 0.2528 | 1.24 |
| βGARCH | 0.7240 | 7.21*** |
| γleverage | -0.1381 | -0.52 |
0.908
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.3718 | 1.40 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2528 | 1.24 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7240 | 7.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1381 | -0.52 |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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