V-Lab
FDM Group (Holdings) plc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
38.49%
decreased by 1.22%
1 Week
38.02%
decreased by 1.69%
1 Month
37.07%
decreased by 2.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5958 | 2.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.0732 | 1.83* |
| βGARCH | 0.7923 | 14.94*** |
| γleverage | 0.0395 | 0.32 |
0.885
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5958 | 2.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0732 | 1.83* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7923 | 14.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0395 | 0.32 |
Persistence:
0.885
Half-life:
6 days
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