FDM Group (Holdings) plc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
31.82%
increased by 0.54%
1 Week
32.60%
increased by 1.32%
1 Month
34.23%
increased by 2.95%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5093 | 11.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0572 | 6.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8188 | 66.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0490 | 1.78* |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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