V-Lab
FDM Group (Holdings) plc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
31.96%
increased by 0.12%
1 Week
32.87%
increased by 1.03%
1 Month
34.63%
increased by 2.79%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:45 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6052 | 3.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.0746 | 1.84* |
| βGARCH | 0.7898 | 14.80*** |
| γleverage | 0.0381 | 0.31 |
0.883
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6052 | 3.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0746 | 1.84* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7898 | 14.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0381 | 0.31 |
Persistence:
0.883
Half-life:
6 days
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