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V-Lab

Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

47.53%

decreased by 2.22%

1 Week

47.82%

decreased by 1.93%

1 Month

48.97%

decreased by 0.78%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2019 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 43% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0554
6.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1224
10.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8961
104.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0370
-3.21***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days