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Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

86.46%

increased by 16.13%

1 Week

86.50%

increased by 16.17%

1 Month

86.68%

increased by 16.35%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0151
2.07**
αARCH0.2135
4.39***
βGARCH0.7839
12.98***
γleverage0.0051
0.03

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0151
2.07**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2135
4.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7839
12.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0051
0.03

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-