Capitalonline Data Service Co Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
83.82%
decreased by 3.49%
1 Week
81.77%
decreased by 5.54%
1 Month
75.96%
decreased by 11.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 28, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 42% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0435 | 13.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2426 | 18.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7302 | 82.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0722 | -3.07*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
Other Capitalonline Data Service Co Ltd Analyses
Other Asy. MEM Analyses on International Equities