V-Lab
Capitalonline Data Service Co Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
65.30%
increased by 7.07%
1 Week
65.24%
increased by 7.01%
1 Month
65.07%
increased by 6.84%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 28, 2020 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 38% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0702 | 13.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2453 | 18.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7243 | 82.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0677 | -2.86*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
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