Capitalonline Data Service Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
67.20%
decreased by 4.04%
1 Week
67.82%
decreased by 3.42%
1 Month
69.53%
decreased by 1.71%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 1, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1330 | 16.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1215 | 21.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8248 | 145.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1603 | 1.04 |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
13 days
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