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How volatility evolves over time

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{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
ωconst	0.0751	2.02**
αARCH	0.1119	9.04***
βGARCH	0.8846	87.32***
γleverage	0.4345	2.16**

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
ω const Unconditional variance weight	0.0751	2.02**
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1119	9.04***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8846	87.32***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.4345	2.16**

V-Lab

Centiel AG AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Centiel AG Analyses