Centiel AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
210.52%
decreased by 1.81%
1 Week
210.41%
decreased by 1.92%
1 Month
209.98%
decreased by 2.35%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.08 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.08 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 168.8983 | 1.39 |
| αscore | 0.0941 | 31.15*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9956 | 333.53*** |
| νDF | 2.0794 | 377.11*** |
0.996
Persistence156d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 168.8983 | 1.39 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0941 | 31.15*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9956 | 333.53*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0794 | 377.11*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
156 days
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