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Centiel AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

210.52%

decreased by 1.81%

1 Week

210.41%

decreased by 1.92%

1 Month

209.98%

decreased by 2.35%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:51 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Centiel AG GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 29, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.08 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Unreliable tails: v = 2.08 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run168.8983
1.39
αscore0.0941
31.15***
βpersistence0.9956
333.53***
νDF2.0794
377.11***

0.996

Persistence

156d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

168.8983
1.39
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0941
31.15***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9956
333.53***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0794
377.11***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

156 days