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V-Lab

Centiel AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

68.84%

decreased by 1.85%

1 Week

71.54%

increased by 0.85%

1 Month

79.95%

increased by 9.26%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:51 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Centiel AG MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 29, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.0970
4.22***
βGARCH0.8313
33.60***
γleverage0.0476
1.25
λ₁tau intercept0.0432
0.69
λ₂forecast adj.0.0606
1.84*
λ₃tau persistence0.9369
24.27***

0.952

Persistence

14d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0970
4.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8313
33.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0476
1.25
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0432
0.69
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0606
1.84*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9369
24.27***

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days