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V-Lab

Centiel AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

108.58%

increased by 6.46%

1 Week

108.25%

increased by 6.13%

1 Month

106.33%

increased by 4.21%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Centiel AG MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 29, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 51% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0974
15.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8301
115.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0494
5.42***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0425
3.24***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0617
8.68***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9361
129.57***

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days