Centiel AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
68.84%
decreased by 1.85%
1 Week
71.54%
increased by 0.85%
1 Month
79.95%
increased by 9.26%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0970 | 4.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8313 | 33.60*** |
| γleverage | 0.0476 | 1.25 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0432 | 0.69 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0606 | 1.84* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9369 | 24.27*** |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0970 | 4.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8313 | 33.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0476 | 1.25 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0432 | 0.69 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0606 | 1.84* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9369 | 24.27*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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