Centiel AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
108.58%
increased by 6.46%
1 Week
108.25%
increased by 6.13%
1 Month
106.33%
increased by 4.21%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 51% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0974 | 15.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8301 | 115.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0494 | 5.42*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0425 | 3.24*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0617 | 8.68*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9361 | 129.57*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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