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V-Lab

XtalPi Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

100.76%

decreased by 1.13%

1 Week

106.38%

increased by 4.49%

1 Month

125.83%

increased by 23.94%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

All

graph of XtalPi Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 9, 2026 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 121 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~121 daysInverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.2106
41.10***
βGARCH0.8890
187.08***
γleverage-0.2106
-28.54***
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
4.04***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.9780
25.33***

0.994

Persistence

121d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2106
41.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8890
187.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2106
-28.54***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
4.04***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9780
25.33***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

121 days