XtalPi Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
100.76%
1 Week
106.38%
1 Month
125.83%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 2026 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 121 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.2106 | 41.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8890 | 187.08*** |
| γleverage | -0.2106 | -28.54*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 4.04*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9780 | 25.33*** |
0.994
Persistence121d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2106 | 41.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8890 | 187.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2106 | -28.54*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 4.04*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9780 | 25.33*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
121 days
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