V-Lab
XtalPi Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
58.43%
increased by 18.30%
1 Week
47.71%
increased by 7.58%
1 Month
44.29%
increased by 4.16%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | 0.5000 | 173.85*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 6.9319 | 21.06*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0626 | 5.48*** |
0.250
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 173.85*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 6.9319 | 21.06*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0626 | 5.48*** |
Persistence:
0.250
Half-life:
1 days
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