V-Lab
XtalPi Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
81.18%
1 Week
79.08%
1 Month
78.62%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1998 | 3.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1998 | -3.49*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.2153 | 1.04 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7866 | 3.76*** |
Persistence:
0.100
Half-life:
0 days
Other XtalPi Holdings Ltd Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on International Equities