V-Lab
XtalPi Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
58.25%
increased by 2.29%
1 Week
163.51%
increased by 107.55%
1 Month
8,461.41%
increased by 8,405.45%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0361 | 24.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 60.71*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6651 | 18.06*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0971 | 18.08*** |
Persistence:
0.286
Half-life:
1 days
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