Yw Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
47.11%
decreased by 5.85%
1 Week
46.92%
decreased by 6.04%
1 Month
47.75%
decreased by 5.21%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2003 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1643 | 18.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6905 | 38.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0087 | 0.82 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0214 | 3.01*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0363 | 4.62*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9618 | 114.13*** |
Persistence:
0.859
Half-life:
5 days
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