V-Lab
Yw Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
30.20%
increased by 4.43%
1 Week
30.80%
increased by 5.03%
1 Month
32.29%
increased by 6.52%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2003 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1641 | 5.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6956 | 18.28*** |
| γleverage | 0.0070 | 0.17 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0195 | 1.58 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0334 | 3.25*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9645 | 89.01*** |
0.863
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1641 | 5.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6956 | 18.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0070 | 0.17 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0195 | 1.58 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0334 | 3.25*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9645 | 89.01*** |
Persistence:
0.863
Half-life:
5 days
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