V-Lab
Yw Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
28.22%
1 Week
28.24%
1 Month
28.29%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. The volatility power δ = 0.73 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0800 | 3.86*** |
| αARCH | 0.1856 | 9.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7994 | 35.08*** |
| γleverage | -0.0216 | -0.36 |
| δpower | 0.7251 | 3.22*** |
0.948
Persistence13d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0800 | 3.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1856 | 9.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7994 | 35.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0216 | -0.36 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7251 | 3.22*** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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