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V-Lab

Yw Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

25.97%

increased by 0.41%

1 Week

26.57%

increased by 1.01%

1 Month

28.78%

increased by 3.22%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Yw Co Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 11, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 148 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.84 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~148 daysδ = 1.84 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0647
3.22***
αARCH0.0947
7.11***
βGARCH0.9053
79.55***
γleverage-0.0655
-0.79
δpower1.8440
8.34***

0.995

Persistence

148d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0647
3.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0947
7.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9053
79.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0655
-0.79
δ

power

Transformation power

1.8440
8.34***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

148 days