V-Lab
Yw Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
25.97%
1 Week
26.57%
1 Month
28.78%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 148 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.84 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0647 | 3.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.0947 | 7.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9053 | 79.55*** |
| γleverage | -0.0655 | -0.79 |
| δpower | 1.8440 | 8.34*** |
0.995
Persistence148d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0647 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0947 | 7.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9053 | 79.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0655 | -0.79 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8440 | 8.34*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
148 days
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