V-Lab
Yw Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
28.29%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
28.15%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
27.70%
decreased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6943 | 7.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1211 | 6.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8426 | 35.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0042 | -1.26 |
| γ2 | 0.0100 | 2.32** |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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