V-Lab
Kaleon SpA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
17.76%
increased by 2.39%
1 Week
16.27%
increased by 0.90%
1 Month
15.10%
decreased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1147 | 5.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1280 | 1.44 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5127 | 1.64 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.7853 | 0.98 |
Persistence:
0.641
Half-life:
2 days
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