V-Lab
Kaleon SpA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
16.17%
increased by 1.22%
1 Week
15.98%
increased by 1.03%
1 Month
15.83%
increased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0522 | 4.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.1429 | 1.83* |
| βGARCH | 0.5304 | 2.14** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.3807 | 0.51 |
0.673
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0522 | 4.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1429 | 1.83* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5304 | 2.14** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.3807 | 0.51 |
Persistence:
0.673
Half-life:
2 days
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