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V-Lab

Kaleon SpA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

16.17%

increased by 1.22%

1 Week

15.98%

increased by 1.03%

1 Month

15.83%

increased by 0.88%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Kaleon SpA S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2025 to Sep 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0522
4.53***
αARCH0.1429
1.83*
βGARCH0.5304
2.14**
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.3807
0.51

0.673

Persistence

2d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0522
4.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1429
1.83*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5304
2.14**
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.3807
0.51

Persistence:

0.673

Half-life:

2 days