V-Lab
Kaleon SpA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
20.03%
decreased by 4.24%
1 Week
19.06%
decreased by 5.21%
1 Month
18.06%
decreased by 6.21%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0409 | 3.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.2282 | 2.52** |
| βGARCH | 0.4952 | 2.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1711 | 0.23 |
0.723
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0409 | 3.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2282 | 2.52** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4952 | 2.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1711 | 0.23 |
Persistence:
0.723
Half-life:
2 days
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