Kaleon SpA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
17.28%
increased by 1.55%
1 Week
17.73%
increased by 2.00%
1 Month
18.12%
increased by 2.39%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9297 | 3.73*** |
| αARCH | 0.1574 | 2.05** |
| βGARCH | 0.5436 | 2.55** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1269 | -0.18 |
0.701
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9297 | 3.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1574 | 2.05** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5436 | 2.55** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1269 | -0.18 |
Persistence:
0.701
Half-life:
2 days
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