Kaleon SpA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
13.10%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
14.10%
increased by 1.00%
1 Month
14.86%
increased by 1.76%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1102 | 3.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1743 | 1.83* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4969 | 1.92* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.0519 | 0.69 |
Persistence:
0.671
Half-life:
2 days
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