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V-Lab

Kaleon SpA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

13.10%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

14.10%

increased by 1.00%

1 Month

14.86%

increased by 1.76%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Kaleon SpA S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1102
3.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1743
1.83*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4969
1.92*
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ11.0519
0.69

Persistence:

0.671

Half-life:

2 days