V-Lab
Kaleon SpA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
16.20%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Week
15.84%
decreased by 1.38%
1 Month
15.55%
decreased by 1.67%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3189 | 3.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2070 | 2.45** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5490 | 5.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1857 | -2.04** |
Persistence:
0.663
Half-life:
2 days
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