V-Lab
Kaleon SpA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
20.53%
decreased by 6.01%
1 Week
19.02%
decreased by 7.52%
1 Month
17.77%
decreased by 8.77%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4039 | 1.44 |
| αARCH | 0.3538 | 0.95 |
| βGARCH | 0.4419 | 1.57 |
| γleverage | -0.2736 | -0.65 |
0.659
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4039 | 1.44 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3538 | 0.95 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4419 | 1.57 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2736 | -0.65 |
Persistence:
0.659
Half-life:
2 days
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