V-Lab
Kaleon SpA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
14.88%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
15.50%
increased by 0.62%
1 Month
15.95%
increased by 1.07%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3520 | 1.07 |
| αARCH | 0.2426 | 0.72 |
| βGARCH | 0.5157 | 1.46 |
| γleverage | -0.1993 | -0.53 |
0.659
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3520 | 1.07 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2426 | 0.72 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5157 | 1.46 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1993 | -0.53 |
Persistence:
0.659
Half-life:
2 days
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on International Equities