V-Lab
Kaleon SpA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
14.83%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Week
15.27%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Month
15.60%
decreased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3402 | 3.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2283 | 2.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5213 | 5.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1936 | -2.07** |
Persistence:
0.653
Half-life:
2 days
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