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V-Lab

Kaleon SpA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

14.83%

decreased by 1.21%

1 Week

15.27%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Month

15.60%

decreased by 0.44%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Kaleon SpA GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3402
3.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2283
2.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5213
5.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1936
-2.07**

Persistence:

0.653

Half-life:

2 days