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V-Lab

Kaleon SpA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

23.50%

increased by 3.65%

1 Week

23.02%

increased by 3.17%

1 Month

24.06%

increased by 4.21%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Kaleon SpA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2025 to Sep 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
γleverage0.3502
16.69***
λ₁tau intercept0.6493
5.98***
λ₂forecast adj.0.8531
3.90***
λ₃tau persistence0.1469
0.88

0.175

Persistence

0d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3502
16.69***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.6493
5.98***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8531
3.90***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1469
0.88

Persistence:

0.175

Half-life:

0 days