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V-Lab

Kaleon SpA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

15.95%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

18.19%

increased by 2.23%

1 Month

20.09%

increased by 4.13%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Kaleon SpA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
153.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-147.54***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2117
23.93***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4291
12.68***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5709
72.50***

Persistence:

0.250

Half-life:

1 days