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V-Lab

Kaleon SpA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

25.02%

increased by 0.59%

1 Week

24.91%

increased by 0.48%

1 Month

24.89%

increased by 0.46%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Kaleon SpA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow101
αARCH0.0713
4.39***
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
γleverage-0.0713
-5.04***
λ₁tau intercept2.4561
15.69***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.036

Persistence

0d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

101
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0713
4.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0713
-5.04***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2.4561
15.69***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.036

Half-life:

0 days