Skip to main content
V-Lab

Kaleon SpA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

10.04%

increased by 0.73%

1 Week

9.77%

increased by 0.46%

1 Month

9.39%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Kaleon SpA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.06
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.05
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
86.49***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0523
6.46***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8543
99.18***

Persistence:

0.250

Half-life:

1 days