Kaleon SpA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
10.04%
increased by 0.73%
1 Week
9.77%
increased by 0.46%
1 Month
9.39%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.06 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.05 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 86.49*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0523 | 6.46*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8543 | 99.18*** |
Persistence:
0.250
Half-life:
1 days
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