V-Lab
Kaleon SpA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
0.02%
1 Week
38,107.38%
1 Month
3,038,813,518,464,073,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 06:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2867 | 8.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0121 | 205.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2867 | -8.50*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 5.00*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0001 | 1.37 |
Persistence:
0.155
Half-life:
0 days
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