V-Lab
Kaleon SpA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
23.50%
increased by 3.65%
1 Week
23.02%
increased by 3.17%
1 Month
24.06%
increased by 4.21%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | 0.3502 | 16.69*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.6493 | 5.98*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8531 | 3.90*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.1469 | 0.88 |
0.175
Persistence0d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3502 | 16.69*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6493 | 5.98*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8531 | 3.90*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1469 | 0.88 |
Persistence:
0.175
Half-life:
0 days
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