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V-Lab

Kaleon SpA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

12.88%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

16.13%

increased by 3.23%

1 Month

17.57%

increased by 4.67%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Kaleon SpA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0969
122.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.02
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4145
145.25***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0688
5.14***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

1.0000
8.02***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.304

Half-life:

1 days