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V-Lab

RGF Capital Markets Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

68.31%

increased by 6.53%

1 Week

89.99%

increased by 28.21%

1 Month

346.07%

increased by 284.29%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of RGF Capital Markets Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 53% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2029
16.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6957
45.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1080
11.18***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

9.1829
0.94
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3230
1.04
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days