V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
68.31%
increased by 6.53%
1 Week
89.99%
increased by 28.21%
1 Month
346.07%
increased by 284.29%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 53% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2029 | 16.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6957 | 45.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1080 | 11.18*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.1829 | 0.94 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3230 | 1.04 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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