V-Lab
RGF Capital Markets Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
35.01%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
48.80%
increased by 13.04%
1 Month
199.62%
increased by 163.86%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 51% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2051 | 16.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6936 | 45.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1051 | 10.69*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.1138 | 0.99 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3160 | 1.09 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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