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V-Lab

RGF Capital Markets Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

35.01%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Week

48.80%

increased by 13.04%

1 Month

199.62%

increased by 163.86%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of RGF Capital Markets Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 51% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2051
16.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6936
45.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1051
10.69***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

9.1138
0.99
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3160
1.09
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days