V-Lab
CH Biotech R&D Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
22.54%
1 Week
26.16%
1 Month
30.49%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2015 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3205 | 17.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5181 | 21.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2680 | -14.70*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.9978 | 0.78 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6343 | 0.79 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0681 | 0.06 |
Persistence:
0.705
Half-life:
2 days
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