CH Biotech R&D Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
26.79%
1 Week
30.13%
1 Month
33.29%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2015 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3266 | 17.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5108 | 21.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2718 | -14.72*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.0369 | 0.75 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6103 | 0.76 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0904 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
0.702
Half-life:
2 days
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