Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
30.43%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
30.81%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
31.98%
increased by 0.71%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 1995 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 83% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0541 | 17.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8684 | 157.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0451 | 7.08*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0047 | 5.54*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0120 | 6.54*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9868 | 497.15*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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