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V-Lab

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

38.76%

decreased by 1.46%

1 Week

39.05%

decreased by 1.17%

1 Month

38.90%

decreased by 1.32%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 18, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 132% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0403
21.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8761
257.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0533
15.32***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.4246
5.72***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7805
12.62***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1247
1.65*

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days