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V-Lab

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

30.43%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Week

30.81%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Month

31.98%

increased by 0.71%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 18, 1995 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 83% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0541
17.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8684
157.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0451
7.08***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0047
5.54***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0120
6.54***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9868
497.15***

Persistence:

0.945

Half-life:

12 days