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V-Lab

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

50.11%

decreased by 1.24%

1 Week

49.34%

decreased by 2.01%

1 Month

46.84%

decreased by 4.51%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 18, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 131% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0407
21.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8759
258.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0532
15.28***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.4253
5.79***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7830
12.85***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1225
1.65*

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days