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V-Lab

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

32.82%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

33.23%

increased by 0.23%

1 Month

34.83%

increased by 1.83%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 18, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 134% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0406
21.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8736
250.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0542
15.39***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.4254
5.59***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7753
12.25***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1283
1.65*

Persistence:

0.941

Half-life:

11 days