V-Lab
Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
25.61%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
25.84%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
26.70%
increased by 0.57%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 1995 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 58-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0554 | 1.64 |
| αARCH | 0.1341 | 10.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8540 | 91.85*** |
0.988
Persistence58d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0554 | 1.64 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1341 | 10.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8540 | 91.85*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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