V-Lab
Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
27.90%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
28.15%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Month
29.06%
increased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 01:42 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 1995 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 53% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 53% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0241 | 4.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.1293 | 10.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9863 | 343.20*** |
| γleverage | -0.0269 | -1.99** |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0241 | 4.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1293 | 10.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9863 | 343.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0269 | -1.99** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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