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V-Lab

Gazprom PAO EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 5th, 2025

1 Day

0.32%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

0.34%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

0.45%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, June 5, 2025 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gazprom PAO EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 24, 2006 to May 30, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 134 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 19% more than positive returns

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0251
8.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2102
45.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9948
751.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0182
-3.92***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

134 days