Gazprom PAO EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 5th, 2025
1 Day
0.32%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
0.34%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
0.45%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, June 5, 2025 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 2006 to May 30, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 134 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 19% more than positive returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0251 | 8.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2102 | 45.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9948 | 751.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0182 | -3.92*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
134 days
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