V-Lab
Gazprom PAO MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 11th, 2022
1 Day
104.76%
decreased by 16.76%
1 Week
103.98%
decreased by 17.54%
1 Month
101.00%
decreased by 20.52%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 20, 2022 at 06:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 2006 to Jul 8, 2022Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1320 | 3.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2653 | 31.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7242 | 119.60*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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