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V-Lab

Gazprom PAO MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 11th, 2022

1 Day

104.76%

decreased by 16.76%

1 Week

103.98%

decreased by 17.54%

1 Month

101.00%

decreased by 20.52%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 20, 2022 at 06:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Gazprom PAO MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 24, 2006 to Jul 8, 2022

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1320
3.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2653
31.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7242
119.60***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

65 days