BASF SE MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
21.49%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
21.90%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
23.25%
increased by 1.64%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 07:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 28-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0803 | 2.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.1764 | 10.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7995 | 70.82*** |
0.976
Persistence28d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0803 | 2.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1764 | 10.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7995 | 70.82*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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