BASF SE MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
22.02%
increased by 0.71%
1 Week
22.60%
increased by 1.29%
1 Month
23.96%
increased by 2.65%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 375% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0260 | 9.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8434 | 134.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0973 | 22.61*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0149 | 3.25*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0251 | 4.03*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9693 | 126.04*** |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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