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V-Lab

BASF SE MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

22.02%

increased by 0.71%

1 Week

22.60%

increased by 1.29%

1 Month

23.96%

increased by 2.65%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BASF SE MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 375% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0260
9.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8434
134.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0973
22.61***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0149
3.25***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0251
4.03***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9693
126.04***

Persistence:

0.918

Half-life:

8 days