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V-Lab

BASF SE GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

20.15%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Week

20.35%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Month

21.10%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BASF SE GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.0597
1.60
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0617
8.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9885
125.17***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.3505
1.63

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

60 days