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BASF SE GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

22.20%

increased by 0.94%

1 Week

22.34%

increased by 1.08%

1 Month

22.86%

increased by 1.60%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BASF SE GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifev = 6.34 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.0512
1.60
αARCH0.0614
8.45***
βGARCH0.9885
125.13***
νDF6.3415
1.63

0.988

Persistence

60d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.0512
1.60
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0614
8.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9885
125.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.3415
1.63

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

60 days