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BASF SE GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

17.39%

increased by 0.93%

1 Week

17.69%

increased by 1.23%

1 Month

18.74%

increased by 2.28%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BASF SE GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 61-day half-lifev = 6.69 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run3.0807
1.67*
αscore0.0625
8.60***
βpersistence0.9886
131.03***
νDF6.6904
1.56

0.989

Persistence

61d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

3.0807
1.67*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0625
8.60***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9886
131.03***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.6904
1.56

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days