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V-Lab

BASF SE GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

22.73%

increased by 0.55%

1 Week

22.85%

increased by 0.67%

1 Month

23.32%

increased by 1.14%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BASF SE GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.0598
6.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0617
33.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9885
499.73***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.3434
6.54***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

60 days