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V-Lab

BASF SE GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

24.71%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

24.78%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

25.06%

increased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BASF SE GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.0700
6.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0618
33.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9885
498.47***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.3342
6.56***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

60 days