BASF SE GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
17.39%
increased by 0.93%
1 Week
17.69%
increased by 1.23%
1 Month
18.74%
increased by 2.28%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 61-day half-lifev = 6.69 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 3.0807 | 1.67* |
| αscore | 0.0625 | 8.60*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9886 | 131.03*** |
| νDF | 6.6904 | 1.56 |
0.989
Persistence61d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 3.0807 | 1.67* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0625 | 8.60*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9886 | 131.03*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6904 | 1.56 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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