V-Lab
BASF SE GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
24.71%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
24.78%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
25.06%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0700 | 6.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0618 | 33.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9885 | 498.47*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.3342 | 6.56*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
60 days
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