V-Lab
BASF SE GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
20.15%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
20.35%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
21.10%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0597 | 1.60 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0617 | 8.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9885 | 125.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.3505 | 1.63 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
60 days
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