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V-Lab
V-Lab

APR Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

51.15%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

52.53%

increased by 1.05%

1 Month

56.25%

increased by 4.77%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of APR Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 27, 2024 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 13-day half-lifev = 5.24 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst15.9333
0.60
αARCH0.0380
0.55
βGARCH0.9463
3.75***
νDF5.2442
0.12

0.946

Persistence

13d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

15.9333
0.60
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0380
0.55
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9463
3.75***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.2442
0.12

Persistence:

0.946

Half-life:

13 days