V-Lab
APR Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
51.15%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
52.53%
increased by 1.05%
1 Month
56.25%
increased by 4.77%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 27, 2024 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 13-day half-lifev = 5.24 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 15.9333 | 0.60 |
| αARCH | 0.0380 | 0.55 |
| βGARCH | 0.9463 | 3.75*** |
| νDF | 5.2442 | 0.12 |
0.946
Persistence13d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.9333 | 0.60 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0380 | 0.55 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9463 | 3.75*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.2442 | 0.12 |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
13 days
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