V-Lab
APR Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
70.55%
increased by 2.22%
1 Week
70.07%
increased by 1.74%
1 Month
68.59%
increased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 27, 2024 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.5410 | 2.19** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0317 | 1.86* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9563 | 18.07*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.2306 | 0.46 |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
16 days
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