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V-Lab

APR Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

69.07%

decreased by 1.49%

1 Week

68.71%

decreased by 1.85%

1 Month

67.62%

decreased by 2.94%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of APR Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 27, 2024 to Jul 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

16.6811
2.17**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0333
1.88*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9540
17.91***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.0984
0.49

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days