APR Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
74.75%
decreased by 2.14%
1 Week
74.13%
decreased by 2.76%
1 Month
72.14%
decreased by 4.75%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 27, 2024 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 17.0687 | 2.18** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0329 | 2.24** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9627 | 25.08*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0862 | 0.60 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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