V-Lab
APR Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
62.91%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
63.02%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Month
63.34%
decreased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 27, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-lifev = 5.44 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 16.3859 | 0.55 |
| αARCH | 0.0285 | 0.43 |
| βGARCH | 0.9594 | 4.46*** |
| νDF | 5.4444 | 0.10 |
0.959
Persistence17d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.3859 | 0.55 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0285 | 0.43 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9594 | 4.46*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4444 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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