V-Lab
APR Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
69.37%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
69.37%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
69.36%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 27, 2024 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0055 | 6.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9909 | 34.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1389 | 0.67 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
76 days
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