V-Lab
APR Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
60.39%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
60.39%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
60.39%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 27, 2024 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 50 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9806 | 4.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9863 | 23.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0020 | 0.04 |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9806 | 4.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9863 | 23.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0020 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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