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V-Lab

APR Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

60.39%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

60.39%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

60.39%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of APR Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 27, 2024 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 50 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9806
4.66***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9863
23.35***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0020
0.04

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9806
4.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9863
23.35***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0020
0.04

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days