APR Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
64.09%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
64.09%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
64.09%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 27, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 51 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9311 | 4.15*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9866 | 17.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0167 | -0.28 |
0.987
Persistence51d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9311 | 4.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9866 | 17.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0167 | -0.28 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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