V-Lab
Petrolia Se Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
40.99%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Week
41.89%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
44.85%
increased by 2.76%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 11, 1999 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8104 | 3.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0786 | 8.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8969 | 66.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0949 | 0.77 |
| γ2 | -0.3219 | -1.79* |
| γ3 | 0.5173 | 4.99*** |
| γ4 | -0.4783 | -5.07*** |
| γ5 | 0.2657 | 2.00** |
| γ6 | -0.1417 | -1.04 |
| γ7 | 0.0983 | 0.89 |
| γ8 | -0.0681 | -0.79 |
| γ9 | 0.0662 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
Other Petrolia Se Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities