Petrolia Se Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
42.26%
increased by 1.64%
1 Week
43.22%
increased by 2.60%
1 Month
46.36%
increased by 5.74%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 11, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8088 | 3.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0786 | 8.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8967 | 65.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0989 | 0.81 |
| γ2 | -0.3309 | -1.85* |
| γ3 | 0.5257 | 5.10*** |
| γ4 | -0.4813 | -5.01*** |
| γ5 | 0.2635 | 1.96** |
| γ6 | -0.1370 | -1.02 |
| γ7 | 0.0923 | 0.86 |
| γ8 | -0.0602 | -0.69 |
| γ9 | 0.0588 | 0.80 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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