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V-Lab

Petrolia Se Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

42.26%

increased by 1.64%

1 Week

43.22%

increased by 2.60%

1 Month

46.36%

increased by 5.74%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Petrolia Se S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 11, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8088
3.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0786
8.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8967
65.69***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.0989
0.81
γ2-0.3309
-1.85*
γ30.5257
5.10***
γ4-0.4813
-5.01***
γ50.2635
1.96**
γ6-0.1370
-1.02
γ70.0923
0.86
γ8-0.0602
-0.69
γ90.0588
0.80

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days