V-Lab
Petrolia Se Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
39.29%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Week
40.36%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
43.84%
increased by 3.47%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 11, 1999 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8531 | 3.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0784 | 8.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8978 | 67.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1127 | 0.93 |
| γ2 | -0.3443 | -1.93* |
| γ3 | 0.5228 | 5.02*** |
| γ4 | -0.4781 | -4.99*** |
| γ5 | 0.2618 | 1.94* |
| γ6 | -0.1359 | -0.99 |
| γ7 | 0.0936 | 0.85 |
| γ8 | -0.0651 | -0.74 |
| γ9 | 0.0643 | 0.90 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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