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V-Lab

Petrolia Se Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026

1 Day

55.48%

decreased by 2.12%

1 Week

56.23%

decreased by 1.37%

1 Month

59.08%

increased by 1.48%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Petrolia Se AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 11, 1999 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 215 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2065
17.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0861
25.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9069
372.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0076
1.11

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

215 days