V-Lab
Petrolia Se Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
55.48%
decreased by 2.12%
1 Week
56.23%
decreased by 1.37%
1 Month
59.08%
increased by 1.48%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 11, 1999 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 215 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2065 | 17.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0861 | 25.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9069 | 372.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0076 | 1.11 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
215 days
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