V-Lab
Obayashi Corp Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
53.39%
increased by 21.08%
1 Week
53.29%
increased by 20.98%
1 Month
52.94%
increased by 20.63%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 30, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0941 | 31.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2087 | 42.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7731 | 281.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0163 | 2.07** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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