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V-Lab

Obayashi Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

24.42%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

26.66%

increased by 1.51%

1 Month

29.17%

increased by 4.02%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 05:26 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Obayashi Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 53% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 53% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.1285
6.22***
βGARCH0.6311
16.26***
γleverage0.0685
2.65***
λ₁tau intercept0.0428
2.29**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0319
3.93***
λ₃tau persistence0.9593
87.40***

0.794

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1285
6.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6311
16.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0685
2.65***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0428
2.29**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0319
3.93***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9593
87.40***

Persistence:

0.794

Half-life:

3 days