Obayashi Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
25.17%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Week
26.19%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
29.21%
increased by 3.06%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 05:23 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 88% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 88% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1935 | 6.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.0794 | 5.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8513 | 65.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.0700 | 2.14** |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1935 | 6.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0794 | 5.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8513 | 65.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0700 | 2.14** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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