V-Lab
Obayashi Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
29.10%
increased by 0.11%
1 Week
29.76%
increased by 0.77%
1 Month
31.77%
increased by 2.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 89% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 89% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1948 | 6.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.0797 | 5.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8506 | 65.31*** |
| γleverage | 0.0706 | 2.15** |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1948 | 6.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0797 | 5.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8506 | 65.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0706 | 2.15** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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