V-Lab
REA Group Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
36.81%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
36.88%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
37.15%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 1999 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 53% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0420 | 13.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0380 | 14.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9461 | 602.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0200 | 3.72*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
118 days
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