V-Lab
REA Group Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
33.66%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
33.77%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
34.20%
increased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 1999 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 117 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~117 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0418 | 3.32*** |
| αARCH | 0.0376 | 3.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9464 | 150.98*** |
| γleverage | 0.0203 | 0.95 |
0.994
Persistence117d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0418 | 3.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0376 | 3.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9464 | 150.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0203 | 0.95 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
117 days
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