REA Group Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
31.40%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
31.56%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Month
32.14%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 114 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 51% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0430 | 13.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0390 | 14.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9451 | 592.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0198 | 3.62*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
114 days
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