V-Lab
REA Group Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
33.44%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
33.55%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Month
34.00%
decreased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 1999 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~118 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0416 | 3.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.0372 | 3.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9467 | 151.79*** |
| γleverage | 0.0205 | 0.96 |
0.994
Persistence118d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0416 | 3.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0372 | 3.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9467 | 151.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0205 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
118 days
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