V-Lab
REA Group Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
33.73%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
33.85%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
34.28%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 1999 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 53% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0419 | 13.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0379 | 14.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9463 | 603.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0200 | 3.73*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
118 days
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