V-Lab
REA Group Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
34.76%
1 Week
35.03%
1 Month
36.05%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 1999 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 41.1264 | 1.53 |
| αARCH | 0.0617 | 19.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 1,796.76*** |
| νDF | 4.1522 | 7.89*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 41.1264 | 1.53 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0617 | 19.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 1,796.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1522 | 7.89*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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