V-Lab
REA Group Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
32.24%
increased by 0.44%
1 Week
32.74%
increased by 0.94%
1 Month
33.55%
increased by 1.75%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 1999 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 52% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 52% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0925 | 4.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6771 | 16.34*** |
| γleverage | 0.0483 | 2.00** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0158 | 2.44** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0183 | 5.03*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9781 | 222.86*** |
0.794
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0925 | 4.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6771 | 16.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0483 | 2.00** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0158 | 2.44** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0183 | 5.03*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9781 | 222.86*** |
Persistence:
0.794
Half-life:
3 days
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