V-Lab
APT Satellite Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
45.30%
1 Week
47.81%
1 Month
52.99%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 99% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2279 | 23.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7274 | 75.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1133 | -11.96*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0832 | 2.15** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1003 | 4.30*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8932 | 32.71*** |
Persistence:
0.899
Half-life:
6 days
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