V-Lab
APT Satellite Holdings Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
34.47%
1 Week
35.27%
1 Month
38.28%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 06:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 1996 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1099 | 3.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.1018 | 4.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9078 | 77.05*** |
| γleverage | -0.0191 | -0.59 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1099 | 3.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1018 | 4.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9078 | 77.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0191 | -0.59 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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