True Colors Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
53.65%
decreased by 3.24%
1 Week
54.44%
decreased by 2.45%
1 Month
56.05%
decreased by 0.84%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4163 | 5.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1226 | 4.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7625 | 22.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0146 | 0.30 |
Persistence:
0.892
Half-life:
6 days
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