True Colors Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
35.15%
decreased by 1.58%
1 Week
35.70%
decreased by 1.03%
1 Month
37.66%
increased by 0.93%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 67 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 67 days. The volatility power δ = 2.38 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1951 | 3.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1310 | 9.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8359 | 54.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0567 | 1.81* |
δ power Transformation power | 2.3830 | 5.80*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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