V-Lab
Xiandai Investment Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
20.34%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
20.44%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Month
20.74%
decreased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 07:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1999 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 1.22 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0700 | 14.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2154 | 53.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7758 | 190.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0064 | -0.90 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2248 | 12.69*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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