V-Lab
Xiandai Investment Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
19.29%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
19.94%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
21.56%
increased by 2.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1999 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1946 | 5.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1103 | 6.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8234 | 32.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0016 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | 0.1502 | 1.74* |
| γ3 | -0.3390 | -5.65*** |
| γ4 | 0.2782 | 4.02*** |
| γ5 | -0.1087 | -1.37 |
| γ6 | -0.0013 | -0.02 |
| γ7 | 0.0681 | 0.98 |
| γ8 | -0.0581 | -1.26 |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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