V-Lab
Deutsche Lufthansa AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
30.80%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
31.08%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
32.07%
increased by 0.92%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3014 | 6.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.0417 | 6.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9433 | 133.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0040 | 2.94*** |
| γ2 | -0.0051 | -3.08*** |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3014 | 6.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0417 | 6.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9433 | 133.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0040 | 2.94*** |
| γ2 | -0.0051 | -3.08*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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