V-Lab
Deutsche Lufthansa AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
32.43%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
32.67%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
33.44%
increased by 0.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 213% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 213% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 106 | |
| αARCH | 0.0182 | 2.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9307 | 80.92*** |
| γleverage | 0.0388 | 4.47*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0259 | 1.09 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0166 | 1.39 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9776 | 58.17*** |
0.968
Persistence22d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0182 | 2.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9307 | 80.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0388 | 4.47*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0259 | 1.09 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0166 | 1.39 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9776 | 58.17*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
22 days
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