Banco do Brasil SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
29.76%
increased by 0.23%
1 Week
30.46%
increased by 0.93%
1 Month
32.70%
increased by 3.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 33% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0914 | 24.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8256 | 174.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0299 | 6.16*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0181 | 3.87*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0130 | 7.74*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9842 | 430.90*** |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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