Banco do Brasil SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
171.39%
decreased by 12.18%
1 Week
166.67%
decreased by 16.90%
1 Month
149.96%
decreased by 33.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:45 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1992 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.0933 | 6.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8243 | 41.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.0281 | 1.52 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0189 | 1.19 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0130 | 2.79*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9841 | 148.05*** |
0.932
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0933 | 6.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8243 | 41.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0281 | 1.52 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0189 | 1.19 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0130 | 2.79*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9841 | 148.05*** |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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