V-Lab
Banco do Brasil SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
66.69%
increased by 6.39%
1 Week
64.07%
increased by 3.77%
1 Month
57.47%
decreased by 2.83%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1992 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.0901 | 6.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8278 | 42.32*** |
| γleverage | 0.0302 | 1.68* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0183 | 1.16 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0128 | 2.79*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9843 | 149.63*** |
0.933
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0901 | 6.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8278 | 42.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0302 | 1.68* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0183 | 1.16 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0128 | 2.79*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9843 | 149.63*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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